Weekly Updates: Middle East & North Africa
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Weekly Updates: Middle East & North Africa *
November 3, 2025 by Rita Bennani
Photo courtesy of Reuters
Can Growth Outpace Conflict? MENA’s Fragile Economic Rebound
In October 2025, the World Bank released new projections suggesting that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s economy is beginning to recover after years of stagnation. The report estimates that the region’s GDP is projected to grow 2.8 % in 2025 and 3.3 % in 2026, up from around 2.3 % in 2024 (World Bank, MENA Economic Update, 2025). This growth is supported by stronger activity in non-oil sectors and moderate oil price stability, considering that this was the main source for a long time. This rebound comes after a period of weak performance caused by conflict, wars, high inflation, and still of course, the lingering effects of the pandemic.
That said, the recovery remains fragile, slowly growing. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are leading the charge through diversification policies such as Vision 2030 and major investments in renewable energy and technology, using the forces of AI to their advantage. These efforts are designed to reduce dependence on oil revenue and attract more international investment. All while non-oil economies in Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan are continuing to stabilize through public investment and trade reforms.
Yet, beneath the surface, instability continues to weigh heavily on the region. For example, the World Bank warns that ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Sudan, and Syria could slow the economic progress due to the disruption of trade routes and increasing funding needed for humanitarian needs. A certain paradox arises: while Gulf nations are heavily investing in infrastructure and green energy, millions in neighboring countries face food insecurity, among other pressing issues.
Furthermore, another growing concern is that the surge in fiscal spending by oil‑rich Gulf economies could deepen the divide between high‑income Gulf states and lower‑income, conflict‑affected nations. This widening gap risks creating a “two‑speed MENA” — a region where some states modernise rapidly while others remain trapped in crisis. Economists warn that, without coordinated regional policies to tackle all the other underlying issues: migration, climate shocks, growth will stay uneven (IMF Regional Outlook, 2025).
In short, MENA’s rebound shows real progress and is remarkable, but many argue it comes with many challenges. Can economic gains outpace ongoing conflicts? This depends on how governments balance economic reform with social recovery. That said, only the next few years will test whether this fragile momentum can evolve into enduring stability.
Photo courtesy of Reuters
Rita Bennani (BC’29) is a Middle East & North Africa Representative at Columbia Academics in Foreign Affairs (CAFA), intending to study Political Science and Economics
Last week, between October 26 and 28, the 47th ASEAN summit took place in Kuala Lumpur, and there were quite a few worth noting. Firstly, Cambodia and Thailand agreed to a ceasefire. This comes after the increase in intense fighting that occurred between the two countries at the Thai border in August. President Trump was present at the signing and received high praise from Thailand’s Prime Minister Anwar, whom he has nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Both countries state that they are willing to work together to de-escalate the conflict, but want to make sure the other is as committed and acts in line with the agreement. Something to note is that at the time of the signing, both countries were involved in trade negotiations with President Trump. Some believe that economic incentive pay has played a role in the signing of the declaration.
Secondly, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, attended virtually and expressed an increased desire to work with South Asian countries in order to diversify and expand their trading partners and markets. This comes after Indian economic scholars claim that India will keep its guard up with the U.S., following the newly placed 50% tariffs. Additionally, 2 weeks ago, India hosted the Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister. They expressed their support for the Taliban regime to keep the U.S. out of Afghanistan and away from intervening with Bagram (what was once the main U.S. military base in Afghanistan); a major shift from their previous alignment regarding U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. Overall, it seems India’s foreign policy is shifting away from cooperating with the U.S.
Other things to note: The Malaysian foreign minister stated that he believes ASEAN’s peace plan outlined for Myanmar can be implemented without much difficulty. Timor-Leste has officially joined ASEAN and is now its 11th member. ASEAN outlined a desire to expand relations with countries in the RCEP. Overall, it seems ASEAN is moving its policy towards increased cooperation among global and member states and wants to expand its outreach.
Emma Arsic-Wills (CC’29) is a South & Southeast Asia Representative at Columbia Academics in Foreign Affairs (CAFA), intending to study Political Science.