The Fastest-Growing Region Refuses to Slow Down: Asia’s Great Balancing Act

This past week highlighted the accelerating geopolitical recalibration going on across South and Southeast Asia, where the world’s fastest-growing nations are navigating renewed U.S.–China competition while continuing to assert their own agency.

In India, Hindustan Petroleum–Mittal Energy Ltd. announced it has suspended the importation of Russian crude oil. The decision comes amid mounting pressure from President Trump, who has repeatedly accused New Delhi of funding Russia’s war machine through discounted oil purchases and threatened sweeping tariffs on Indian exports.

This move marks the first visible concession by a major Indian refiner, signaling a cautious shift in India’s balancing act between Washington’s pressure and Moscow’s discounts, even as New Delhi maintains that its energy policy remains centered on affordability and sovereignty, not any external coercion.

Across Southeast Asia, the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur produced two parallel but competing outcomes. Beijing concluded negotiations on an upgraded China–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement designed to deepen economic integration and buffer against rising U.S. protectionism. In parallel, Washington finalized new trade and critical minerals accords with Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, agreements aimed at diversifying supply chains and reducing China’s near-monopoly in rare earths.

These region-wide developments reveal a geopolitical landscape no longer defined by rigid alliances but by pragmatic hedging. From India’s energy reversal under external pressure to ASEAN’s dual engagement with both Washington and Beijing, Asia’s emerging order is one of calculated, flexible neutrality and strategic opportunism.

Last week, between October 26 and 28, the 47th ASEAN summit took place in Kuala Lumpur, and there were quite a few worth noting. Firstly, Cambodia and Thailand agreed to a ceasefire. This comes after the increase in intense fighting that occurred between the two countries at the Thai border in August. President Trump was present at the signing and received high praise from Thailand’s Prime Minister Anwar, whom he has nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Both countries state that they are willing to work together to de-escalate the conflict, but want to make sure the other is as committed and acts in line with the agreement. Something to note is that at the time of the signing, both countries were involved in trade negotiations with President Trump. Some believe that economic incentive pay has played a role in the signing of the declaration.

Secondly, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, attended virtually and expressed an increased desire to work with South Asian countries in order to diversify and expand their trading partners and markets. This comes after Indian economic scholars claim that India will keep its guard up with the U.S., following the newly placed 50% tariffs. Additionally, 2 weeks ago, India hosted the Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister. They expressed their support for the Taliban regime to keep the U.S. out of Afghanistan and away from intervening with Bagram (what was once the main U.S. military base in Afghanistan); a major shift from their previous alignment regarding U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. Overall, it seems India’s foreign policy is shifting away from cooperating with the U.S.

Other things to note: The Malaysian foreign minister stated that he believes ASEAN’s peace plan outlined for Myanmar can be implemented without much difficulty. Timor-Leste has officially joined ASEAN and is now its 11th member. ASEAN outlined a desire to expand relations with countries in the RCEP. Overall, it seems ASEAN is moving its policy towards increased cooperation among global and member states and wants to expand its outreach.

Emma Arsic-Wills (CC’29) is a South & Southeast Asia Representative at Columbia Academics in Foreign Affairs (CAFA), intending to study Political Science.